O Crash de 2010 começa a parecer tudo menos uma miragem

Americans Enjoying Final Days of Artificial Economy

In recent days, Japan has intervened in the foreign currency market to artificially drive down the value of the yen. Japan's actions to weaken the yen have driven it from 83 to 85.73 against the U.S. dollar. Most analysts in the mainstream media are portraying this as Japan's attempt to "head off a deflation spiral". Almost everybody is applauding Japan's move, saying it was needed in order to "shore up its export-driven economy".

The truth is, although Japan claims to be helping Japanese citizens with this move, Japanese citizens are the ones who will actually suffer. Despite Japan's economy entering into recession last year, the Japanese were able to maintain their same standard of living because prices were falling due to their strong currency. Some of the largest Japanese exporters like Toyota and Sony saw their revenues decline last year by 20.8% and 12.9% respectively, but this was only bad for shareholders of these companies. Despite rapidly declining revenues for Japanese exporters, Japan's unemployment rate only reached a peak of 5.6% last year and is now down to 5.2%.

The Japanese should be happy and grateful for how strong their economy is compared to the U.S. economy. When it comes to exporters in Japan, their problem is not the strong yen, but the weak U.S. dollar. If Japanese exporters allow the U.S. dollar to collapse, their revenues will continue to decline substantially, but that is a healthy part of a free market economy. Within a year or two, a strengthening yen would allow the Japanese to spend more on their own goods, and revenues for Toyota and Sony would come back strong.

Japan's efforts to postpone a few Japanese corporations going through a brief but tough readjustment period are helping to artificially prop up the standard of living for Americans one last time. NIA believes that the Japanese better be careful what they wish for. Never before in world history has nearly every developed country been in battle with each other to have the weakest currency. Asian producing countries want their currencies to be the weakest so that they can have the honor of shipping their products to Americans who can't afford them.

Currencies are very fragile, especially when they are fiat and backed by nothing. NIA believes that nearly all countries around the world with fiat currencies are currently making the grave mistake of doing everything in their power to debase them. Even a five year old child, if you asked them if they want the money in their piggy bank to be worth more or less, would have the common sense to say more. The world's politicians either don't have this same common sense or they are being paid off by the management of export giants.

Although China recently made the wise decision to allow the yuan to strengthen, they haven't allowed the yuan to strengthen fast enough. China is now facing a price inflation crisis that will soon spread to the U.S. Consumer prices in China rose by 3.5% in August compared to one year ago, the largest increase in nearly two years. On a month-over-month basis (including seasonal adjustments), consumer prices in China rose by 4.8% in August over July.

Workers at a Honda plant in China recently went on strike over wages and work conditions. The Chinese have had enough of slaving in factories for $30 per week while Americans sit home on their couches, collect $400 per week in unemployment benefits, and consume the goods that the Chinese make. Chinese manufacturers are now being forced to increase the wages they pay to workers and these costs will be passed on to American importers of Chinese goods like Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart recently eliminated their "rollbacks" on grocery items in the U.S. Grocery prices at Wal-Mart rose by a shocking 5.8% in July from June. In fact, some items in Wal-Mart like a 36-ounce bottle of Windex and a 12-ounce box of Quaker Oats rose in price by 51% and 66% respectively in July over June. Considering that in 29 states, Wal-Mart controls more than half the grocery market, almost all Americans are beginning to feel the effects of massive price inflation.

With 70% of the goods sold in Wal-Mart made in China, NIA believes that Wal-Mart's massive price increases for grocery items will soon spread to all other items sold. It is crystal clear for us to see what is ahead for U.S. prices of consumer goods, yet the mainstream media continues to talk about deflation. Cotton prices have surged 28% during the past two months to their highest level in 15 years. That alone guarantees higher clothing prices, but combined with the wage situation in China, Americans could see an unprecedented surge in clothing prices in the months to come.

A massive outbreak of price inflation is already taking place all around us, as Americans enjoy their final days of our artificial economy that is being propped up by China and Japan. Some people say China and Japan continue to buy and hold U.S. treasuries because of our overpowering military presence, but when they start dumping our treasuries and the bond bubble bursts, the U.S. military regime will come to an end. A U.S. societal collapse is coming and NIA will expose the truth in its over one hour long documentary coming in late-October. This documentary will be talked about around the world for years to come. If you would like your friends and family members to be the first to see NIA's new upcoming documentary, please tell them to become a member of NIA for free at http://inflation.us

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The next bubble: U.S Treasuries

A ler

The Fed's Biggest Bubble

By Peter Schiff

I've made a living out of exposing economic fallacies, but there's one whale that I can't seem to harpoon. Even top-flight Wall Street analysts seem to believe that the Fed's doubling of the monetary base after the credit crunch has not had an inflationary impact on our economy. Their logic can be summed up like so: "The money the Fed created and dropped from helicopters has all been caught in the trees." In other words, the Fed is creating money, but it is just being held as excess reserves by the banking system instead of being loaned to the public. Therefore, the money supply hasn't truly increased, there is no money multiplier effect, and aggregate price levels are behaving themselves.

But this is only a half-truth. Yes, most of the money created by the Fed has been kept by commercial banks as excess reserves. However, the Fed doesn't conjure reserves by magic. It first creates an electronic credit by fiat, then purchases an asset held by a financial institution. Those primary dealers then deposit that Federal Reserve check into their reserves. The act of creating money from nothing and buying an asset -- be it a Treasury bond or Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) -- drives up the price of that asset in the open market. Those price distortions send erroneous signals to private buyers and sellers, eventually creating gross economic imbalances.

Therefore, the inflation created by the Fed first gets concentrated in whatever asset it has chosen to purchase - before spreading throughout the economy.

In the latest example of the Fed's monetary manipulations, Bernanke & Co. purchased $1.25 trillion in MBS. The prices of MBS were therefore driven up (and yields down). Before that, the Fed forced the entire yield curve lower by purchasing not only Treasury bills but also $300 billion in notes and bonds. The Fed has also recently indicated that it will be swapping maturing MBS for longer-dated Treasury securities in an effort to keep its balance sheet from shrinking.

While it is true that -- for now at least -- we have been spared from the imminent curse of skyrocketing consumer prices, thanks to the falling money multiplier, it is blatantly untrue that the trillion-plus dollars the Fed created have been rendered inconsequential.

Not only has the huge buildup in the monetary base put pressure on the US dollar and caused gold to soar, but it has also broadcast an egregious and distortive price signal for US debt securities. The 10-year note is now trading just above 2.5%. That yield is near its all time record low, nearly 5 percentage points below its 40-year average, and 13 percentage points below its record high of September 1981.

US sovereign debt should only enjoy such historically low yields due to an overabundance of savings, low inflation, and low debt. None of those preferable conditions currently exist. Hence, US Treasuries are the most over-supplied, over-owned, and over-priced asset in the history of the planet! Once the debt dam breaks, it will send the dollar and bond prices cascading lower, and consumer prices and bond yields through the roof.

While Wall Street and Washington are petrified of the deflation boogieman, the real menace lurking in the shadows is the Fed's bond bubble - and it's going to eat small investors alive.

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